Methodology · Trust · Privacy
How we keep the wait log honest.
Every number you see — average waits, forecast confidence, model demand scores — is auditable back to the report that produced it. This page documents the rules, the math, the verification flow, and the privacy boundary we will not cross.
Verified reports
Reports tagged 'Verified' have had supporting proof reviewed by a moderator — usually a screenshot of the dealer's email, a call log, or a WhatsApp exchange. The proof is never published; only the verdict is.
Community validation
Authenticated members can up- or down-vote each report. Votes are not used in the forecast math; they exist purely so the community can flag reports that look implausible to other people on the same boutique's list.
Sample-size-weighted math
Forecasts blend the live wait-time snapshot for your model + tier with a Bayesian prior. As more reports arrive, the prior's weight shrinks. The 80% confidence interval reflects both spread and sample size.
Audit trail per record
Every wait report has an append-only log of what happened to it — filed, voted, verified, edited. Open any report's detail page to see its full history.
Pseudonymous by default
Submitter names and emails never appear on the public wait log. Reports show an opaque 'Collector #1234' label derived from your user id. You can also mark a report as fully anonymous at submission time.
Exportable, citable
Any report detail page can be exported as a print-ready PDF (use your browser's Print → Save as PDF). The PDF includes the verification status, vote tally, audit trail, and a permanent citation URL.
The forecast formula
ŵ = ( n · wobs + k · wprior ) / ( n + k )
wobs is the average wait observed in recent snapshots for the chosen model + tier. n is the snapshot sample size. wprior is the long-run baseline for that model. k = 30 is the prior strength — the number of equivalent reports we trust the baseline as much as. As real reports accumulate (n grows), the prior fades.
The 80% confidence interval (10th–90th percentile) is derived from a triangular distribution centred on ŵ with width scaled by residual variance. Sensitivity scenarios (+1 visit, +$10k spend, etc.) are computed by re-running the same formula with the perturbed inputs.
Disclaimers
- Predictions are estimates only. No model, dealer, or relationship score guarantees an allocation. Rolex SA controls all production decisions.
- We are not affiliated with Rolex SA or any authorized dealer. All trademarks are property of their respective owners.
- Self-reported data. Most reports are unverified. We surface verified-vs-unverified counts so you can weigh the evidence yourself.
- No investment advice. Wait time, allocation likelihood, and resale value are not correlated in any reliable way.
Privacy boundary
What we never publish.
We never expose
- · Your name or email on any public surface
- · Proof images uploaded with reports (moderators only)
- · The link between a vote and your user record
- · Your address, phone, or any payment data
We do publish
- · The boutique name and city (those are not private)
- · The model, configuration, wait time and outcome
- · A stable opaque pseudonym (Collector #####)
- · The verified/unverified badge and the verdict date