Home

The Tracker · 2026

Your wait, in a single sheet.

Track every allocation, set alerts when wait times shift, and import past records from a spreadsheet — all under one wait log.

A spreadsheet-style wait log of every allocation in motion. Formulas compute average waits and success rates by model and tier. The predictive engine uses live 2026 baselines.

Add a rowOpen insights
14 reports — small sample Updated 16d ago Methodology
Active waits
5
Average wait
10.5 months
Success rate
50%
7 / 14 allocated or offered
Longest wait
2.6 yr

Heat Map

Model popularity vs. typical wait

2026 baseline
CollectionActivityReportsAvg waitSuccess2026 typical2026 range
Datejust
2Under a month50%1 mo0–3 mo
Explorer
27.0 months100%8 mo3–18 mo
Submariner
21.3 yr50%12 mo4–24 mo
Daytona
21.9 yr50%42 mo24–60 mo
Sky Dweller
14.0 months100%6 mo2–14 mo
Sea Dweller
15.0 months0%8 mo4–18 mo
Day Date
17.0 months100%12 mo6–24 mo
Yacht Master
16.0 months0%9 mo3–18 mo
GMT-Master II
11.5 yr0%18 mo8–36 mo
Oyster Perpetual
11.3 yr0%9 mo3–24 mo

Formulas

Average wait by purchase history tier

All reports
Platinum
7.0 months
average wait
1 reports100% success
Gold
1.1 yr
average wait
4 reports25% success
Silver
9.0 months
average wait
3 reports33% success
Bronze
1.4 yr
average wait
2 reports50% success
New
7.0 months
average wait
4 reports75% success

Formula: avg(wait_months) WHERE history_tier = T · success = count(status IN ['purchased','offered']) / count(*)

The Wait Log

Allocations in motion

14 rows
ModelRef.Desired ConfigBoutiqueTierVisitsAddedEst. DeliveryActual DeliveryWait (mo)Days on listStatusPredicted (2026)
Datejust 41
Datejust
126334—
Wempe Avenue Monté
Paris
Gold001 Jun 202603 Jul 202610 Jul 20261.0 months39
Waiting+0.2 mo late
1 mo
range 0–2 mo
high
Datejust 41
Datejust
126334Wimbledon slate dial, Jubilee bracelet
Wempe Avenue Monté
Paris
New130 May 202630 May 202630 May 2026Same day0
PurchasedOn time
1 mo
range 0–4 mo
high
Explorer 40
Explorer
224270Pure black dial, 3-6-9 indices, brushed Oystersteel
Wempe Avenue Monté
Paris
New225 Feb 202625 Aug 202625 May 20263.0 months89
PurchasedOn time
11 mo
range 4–24 mo
medium
Sky-Dweller
Sky Dweller
336934Two-tone champagne dial, fluted bezel, Jubilee
Tourneau Madison Avenue
New York
Silver226 Jan 202615 Jun 202626 May 20264.0 months120
OfferedOn time
6 mo
range 2–13 mo
high
Sea-Dweller
Sea Dweller
126600Black dial, Cerachrom bezel, Oyster bracelet
The Hour Glass Orchard
Singapore
Silver322 Jan 202622 Sept 2026—5.0 months148
Waiting
7 mo
range 4–16 mo
medium
Day-Date 40
Day Date
228238Yellow gold, champagne dial, fluted bezel, President bracelet
Ahmed Seddiqi Dubai Mall
Dubai
Platinum404 Oct 202504 May 202604 May 20267.0 months212
OfferedOn time
6 mo
range 3–12 mo
medium
Yacht-Master 40
Yacht Master
126622Platinum dial, bidirectional bezel, Oysterflex
Watches of Switzerland Hudson Yards
New York
Gold318 Sept 202518 Mar 2026—6.0 months274
Declined
6 mo
range 2–13 mo
medium
Submariner Date
Submariner
126610LNBlack Cerachrom 41mm, Oystersteel
Tourneau Madison Avenue
New York
New312 Aug 202512 May 202612 May 20269.0 months273
OfferedOn time
16 mo
range 5–31 mo
medium
Explorer 40
Explorer
224270Black dial, brushed Oystersteel bracelet, 40mm
Yoshida Ginza Honten
Tokyo
Bronze418 Jun 202518 Apr 202618 Apr 202611.0 months304
PurchasedOn time
9 mo
range 3–20 mo
medium
Cosmograph Daytona
Daytona
126500LNWhite lacquered dial, ceramic tachymetric bezel, Oyster
Beyer Chronometrie
Zürich
Gold821 Mar 202521 May 202621 May 20261.2 yr426
PurchasedOn time
26 mo
range 15–38 mo
low
GMT-Master II "Pepsi"
GMT-Master II
126710BLRORed/blue Pepsi Cerachrom bezel, Jubilee bracelet
Bucherer Bond Street
London
Silver629 Oct 202430 Apr 2026—1.5 yr598
Waiting
15 mo
range 7–31 mo
medium
Oyster Perpetual 41
Oyster Perpetual
124300Turquoise (tiffany) dial, smooth bezel, Oyster
Watches of Switzerland Hudson Yards
New York
New504 Oct 202404 Jul 2025—1.3 yr623
Abandoned
11 mo
range 4–31 mo
medium
Submariner Date
Submariner
126610LNBlack Cerachrom 41mm, Oystersteel bracelet
Beyer Chronometrie
Zürich
Bronze615 Jul 202415 Jan 2027—1.8 yr704
Waiting
13 mo
range 4–25 mo
medium
Cosmograph Daytona
Daytona
126500LNWhite lacquered dial (panda accepted), ceramic bezel, Oyster
Yoshida Ginza Honten
Tokyo
Gold1202 Oct 202331 Dec 2026—2.6 yr991
Waiting
25 mo
range 14–36 mo
low
Allocated / On time In progress / Medium confidence Behind schedule / Low confidence

Predictive Engine · 2026

Baseline wait expectations

Daytona

42 mo
24 mo60 mo

Most allocated chronograph on Earth — 2–5 years even with strong history.

Submariner

12 mo
4 mo24 mo

Steel Sub Date hovers 4–18 months at most boutiques.

GMT-Master II

18 mo
8 mo36 mo

Pepsi & Batman bezels still drive 18+ month waits.

Sea Dweller

8 mo
4 mo18 mo

Steel SD4K reads quiet — 4–12 months typical.

Day Date

12 mo
6 mo24 mo

President is allocation-dependent. Premium client lists move faster.

Datejust

1 mo
0 mo3 mo

Walk-in or single-visit purchase remains realistic.

Explorer

8 mo
3 mo18 mo

Explorer 40 has tightened post-relaunch — 6–12 months typical.

Yacht Master

9 mo
3 mo18 mo

Steel YM 40 faster; Platinum & Titanium slower.

Sky Dweller

6 mo
2 mo14 mo

Two-tone and rose gold variants ship within 6 months.

Oyster Perpetual

9 mo
3 mo24 mo

Coloured-dial 41s (turquoise, tiffany) still the most political.

Milgauss

24 mo
12 mo36 mo

Discontinued — pre-owned wait log only.

Air King

9 mo
3 mo18 mo

Updated 40mm available regularly at flagships.

Formula

predicted = baseline.typical × tierMultiplier − visitBonus

tierMultiplier:  platinum 0.55  ·  gold 0.75  ·  silver 0.95  ·  bronze 1.15  ·  new 1.35
visitBonus:      min(0.15, visits × 0.015)
range:           [baseline.min × f , baseline.max × f]   where f = max(0.45, tierMultiplier − visitBonus)